If you like betting on basketball matches from NBA or US college basketball you might be interested in knowing how the bookmakers create their lines for under and over betting on total number of scored points by both teams. This question has many different answers, but mine is related to the average performance of both teams.
According to my researches, the basis for the selection of lines for under and over betting is made by some very easy to get betting data. It is the average number of scored points made by the hosts in their home games, the average number of points allowed by the hosts in their matches at home and respectively the same points, but for the visiting team.
This applies to more than 80% of the NBA matches where, the differences between the results of the above pointed method and the bookmakers’ lines for under and over is within 2 or 3 points.
In those 20% of the matches in which we can see a larger difference between the stats I pointed above and the offered by the betting houses lines and it may be associated with various other factors, such as injuries to key players or big bets in some other directions.
It is important to know that exactly in the deviation we can search for betting profits, especially if we properly understand the reasons behind the bookmakers’ decision to set higher or lower lines.
This is actually the biggest problem. I really know how they set the points, but how can we use it?
The options are few. One of them is to find the relationship between the standard deviation of the way the line was made and the number of matches for each team, finished with unders or overs. The idea is that if we have a team which has finished more than 60% of its matches in one direction under or over it is possible the betting house to artificially lower the lines to avoid bets for the easy to guess outcome.
Of course, these are simply some assumptions without any evidence, but anyway, what is clear is that there is something out there. Something we can use. Something which we should find first.
Betting on football matches is generally the most popular betting option and attracts more and more people all over the world. For making their betting predictions most of them use the standings as a main factor, the other factor is head-to-head matches and the standings taken only by the last five or six matches.
Of course, there are many other options for making betting predictions, but the top three are these pointed above. However, one very important factor is underestimated from most of the players, but must surely be among the most common factors when making their predictions for football matches. I am talking about the goal difference of both teams.
In fact, scoring goals should be the main factor upon which to make football betting predictions because the goals come first and after them comе the wins and of course points and standings.
The question is how to use the goal difference scored and allowed by the teams in our calculations. Whether the scoring of five goals against the champion and the leader in the standings is equal to the scoring of five goals against the last team in the current standings?
In addition, if a team doesn’t score against the team with the best defence is in no case the same as if the team doesn’t score against a team which gets two or three goals per game.
That is why we need to add some additional filters that would give us more accurate information about the teams’ strength. Of course, which filters a bettor should use is an individual work of each player. Also, they should be created according to the league where the punter will bet. However, I will share how I do my filters.
In fact, it’s all about trial and error. There is no other way. You need a pen and paper, and check a match after match. This is the only option. So if you want to make a working betting system take a pen, select your championships and check which team how many goals score, against whom and how.
Then you will have the needed information to create your own hypothesis and by it to create your football predictions.
Liverpool hosts Aston Villa in the match of the 17th round of the Premier League. A match, which is certainly very interesting for betting not only because both managers are for the first time in their teams, but also they are among the top managers in the league.
Most of the bettors believe that a good manager is more than 50% of the class of a team and Brendan Rodgers and Paul Lambert are truly among the best in their profession. However, if I have to be honest both teams are currently experiencing crisis, which at least I didn’t expect at the beginning of the season.
Liverpool are in the tenth place in the standings with 22 points, while Aston Villa is only a place above the relegation zone with an equal number of points – 15 with the 18th in the standings – Wigan.
On the other hand, both teams are in a good run. Liverpool have lost just one of their last ten matches in the Premier League, registering four wins and five draws and Aston Villa haven’t lost in four consecutive games.
All the betting houses offer Liverpool as a strong favourite in the match, with a modest coefficient of 1.36 for their victory. This allows me to bet on Aston Villa and more specifically on the Asian Handicap market with a preset margin of 1.5 goals. The betting odds about this one is about 2, which is more than excellent.
Indeed, Liverpool’s chances to win this game are more than good. The question is how big are the chances Liverpool to win the match with two goals. Something that I think is not very likely.
The reason for this is that Liverpool is the team in the Premier League, which misses most goal attempts per game more than any other team in the entire Premier League. Their ineffectiveness in offense is simply staggering and thus they do not win their matches. On the other hand Aston Villa have let only one goal in their last four games, which is also a factor in favour of my bet.